News Forecast Experiments

Dataset coverage, next-day news predictions, and scored loss for prompt iterations.

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Dataset rows
5620
Events
20461
Predictions
6839
Scores
4269
Avg loss
0.9105
Avg news match
16.7%

Prompt Metrics

PromptPredScoredLossNewsDir
llm-base-v124240.806023.6%8.3%
llm-bearish-reversal-guard-v131310.863022.7%6.5%
llm-catalyst-calendar-v111110.824221.0%9.1%
llm-directional-trader-v111110.845921.4%36.4%
llm-directional-trader-v21191190.601127.0%55.5%
llm-guarded-directional-trader-v143430.755425.6%20.9%
llm-news-simulation-v124240.823822.8%8.3%
llm-precision-abstention-v137370.777626.5%10.8%
llm-skeptical-consensus-v1880.849120.0%12.5%
llm-surprise-catalyst-v152520.826423.3%15.4%
local-hybrid-audit-2026051711144500.901711.2%16.4%
local-hybrid-audit-20260517-pl1201201200.830513.5%60.0%
local-hybrid-momentum-v16946840.829417.2%51.2%
local-knn-audit-2026051711143960.858815.7%15.1%
local-knn-audit-20260517-pl1201201200.836818.0%36.7%
local-knn-news-v16946840.805521.7%40.3%
local-nb-audit-2026051711144521.079911.5%16.7%
local-nb-audit-20260517-pl1201201201.087713.0%35.0%
local-nb-audit-20260517-small551661.104313.0%3.8%
local-news-nb-current-pl1201201201.039812.7%48.3%
local-news-nb-v16946841.076216.1%30.0%
news-forecast-v124130.271150.4%37.5%

Dataset Coverage

TickerRowsStartEnd
AAPL2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMAT2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMD2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMZN2532025-05-152026-05-18
AVGO2532025-05-152026-05-18
CBRS32026-05-142026-05-18
GLD2532025-05-152026-05-18
GOOG2532025-05-152026-05-18
GOOGL2532025-05-152026-05-18
HOOD2532025-05-152026-05-18
INTC2532025-05-152026-05-18
META2532025-05-152026-05-18
MSFT2532025-05-152026-05-18
MU2532025-05-152026-05-18
NVDA2532025-05-152026-05-18
QQQ2532025-05-152026-05-18
RVI512026-03-062026-05-18
SNDK2532025-05-152026-05-18
SPY2532025-05-152026-05-18
TLT2532025-05-152026-05-18
TQQQ2532025-05-152026-05-18
TSLA2532025-05-152026-05-18
TSM2532025-05-152026-05-18
USO2532025-05-152026-05-18

Recent Forecasts

TickerInputTargetPredictionConfActionLoss
NVDA2026-03-112026-03-12Pre-Market Most Active for Jan 7, 2026 : GLUE, TSLL, COMP, TQQQ, MSTX, HOUS, CRML, NVDA, BE, SMR, BBAI, NIO78%add1.0578
USO2026-03-102026-03-11Oil ETFs Jump on Escalation in Middle East Tensions77%buy0.8723
META2026-03-112026-03-12S&P 500 and Dow Rally to Record Highs as Tech Stocks Surge55%hold1.0175
SNDK2026-03-112026-03-12Micron to exit consumer memory business amid global supply shortage - Reuters61%buy1.0350
TSM2026-03-092026-03-10TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K80%avoid1.1287
MU2026-03-092026-03-10TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K81%avoid1.1569
GOOGL2026-03-122026-03-13GOOGL likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows76%add1.1814
MU2026-03-162026-03-17Micron Earnings Foreshadow Chip Shortage in 2026 - Barron's68%buy—
META2026-03-162026-03-17Better S&P 500 ETF: State Street's SPY vs. Vanguard's VOO58%hold—
HOOD2026-03-102026-03-11Gold Hits $4,000 per Ounce. Here Are 3 Top Gold ETFs to Buy Now.78%buy1.1884
GLD2026-03-162026-03-17The Market’s Silent Warning: What Bonds and Gold Reveal57%hold—
GOOG2026-03-112026-03-12GOOG Alphabet SEC 424B269%add1.1150
META2026-03-092026-03-10Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain68%hold0.9553
AAPL2026-03-162026-03-17TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K55%trim0.9663
AMD2026-03-122026-03-13Micron to exit consumer memory business amid global supply shortage - Reuters62%add0.9997
INTC2026-03-122026-03-13INTC likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows70%add1.1092
TQQQ2026-03-102026-03-11Pre-Market Most Active for Nov 18, 2025 : OLMA, SQQQ, TSLL, TQQQ, NVDA, SNAP, IBIT, NVO, HNGE, NIO, SMR, BBAI86%buy1.1576
META2026-03-122026-03-13META likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows75%trim0.8503
NVDA2026-03-132026-03-16Pre-Market Most Active for Jul 3, 2025 : TSLL, BBAI, IBIT, SQQQ, TSLA, TQQQ, NVDA, JHX, QBTS, BABA, OSCR, NIO66%add0.7012
USO2026-03-092026-03-10Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain78%buy0.8332
USO2026-03-132026-03-16USO likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows78%buy1.1686
TQQQ2026-03-112026-03-12Pre-Market Most Active for Jan 7, 2026 : GLUE, TSLL, COMP, TQQQ, MSTX, HOUS, CRML, NVDA, BE, SMR, BBAI, NIO86%add1.1180
TQQQ2026-03-132026-03-16Pre-Market Most Active for Feb 26, 2026 : NVDA, BFLY, VICI, IONQ, QBTS, TTD, JOBY, VIR, IONX, TQQQ, CRCG, NU86%trim1.1018
QQQ2026-03-132026-03-16After Soaring 84% in 5 Years, Is the Invesco QQQ Trust Still a Good ETF to Buy in 2026?57%hold1.0277
QQQ2026-03-162026-03-17Better S&P 500 ETF: State Street's SPY vs. Vanguard's VOO78%add—
MSFT2026-03-132026-03-16Gold Is Crushing the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and Even Nvidia This Year. Here's a Simple Way to Own It.64%trim1.0494
META2026-03-132026-03-16META likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows62%avoid1.0520
SNDK2026-03-132026-03-16Is Sandisk the Next Micron?77%buy0.7545
AVGO2026-03-132026-03-16QQQ, NFLX, VRTX, SBUX: Large Outflows Detected at ETF56%hold1.0229
GOOGL2026-03-102026-03-11GOOGL likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows73%add0.8634