News Forecast Experiments

Dataset coverage, next-day news predictions, and scored loss for prompt iterations.

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Dataset rows
5620
Events
20461
Predictions
6839
Scores
4269
Avg loss
0.9105
Avg news match
16.7%

Prompt Metrics

PromptPredScoredLossNewsDir
llm-base-v124240.806023.6%8.3%
llm-bearish-reversal-guard-v131310.863022.7%6.5%
llm-catalyst-calendar-v111110.824221.0%9.1%
llm-directional-trader-v111110.845921.4%36.4%
llm-directional-trader-v21191190.601127.0%55.5%
llm-guarded-directional-trader-v143430.755425.6%20.9%
llm-news-simulation-v124240.823822.8%8.3%
llm-precision-abstention-v137370.777626.5%10.8%
llm-skeptical-consensus-v1880.849120.0%12.5%
llm-surprise-catalyst-v152520.826423.3%15.4%
local-hybrid-audit-2026051711144500.901711.2%16.4%
local-hybrid-audit-20260517-pl1201201200.830513.5%60.0%
local-hybrid-momentum-v16946840.829417.2%51.2%
local-knn-audit-2026051711143960.858815.7%15.1%
local-knn-audit-20260517-pl1201201200.836818.0%36.7%
local-knn-news-v16946840.805521.7%40.3%
local-nb-audit-2026051711144521.079911.5%16.7%
local-nb-audit-20260517-pl1201201201.087713.0%35.0%
local-nb-audit-20260517-small551661.104313.0%3.8%
local-news-nb-current-pl1201201201.039812.7%48.3%
local-news-nb-v16946841.076216.1%30.0%
news-forecast-v124130.271150.4%37.5%

Dataset Coverage

TickerRowsStartEnd
AAPL2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMAT2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMD2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMZN2532025-05-152026-05-18
AVGO2532025-05-152026-05-18
CBRS32026-05-142026-05-18
GLD2532025-05-152026-05-18
GOOG2532025-05-152026-05-18
GOOGL2532025-05-152026-05-18
HOOD2532025-05-152026-05-18
INTC2532025-05-152026-05-18
META2532025-05-152026-05-18
MSFT2532025-05-152026-05-18
MU2532025-05-152026-05-18
NVDA2532025-05-152026-05-18
QQQ2532025-05-152026-05-18
RVI512026-03-062026-05-18
SNDK2532025-05-152026-05-18
SPY2532025-05-152026-05-18
TLT2532025-05-152026-05-18
TQQQ2532025-05-152026-05-18
TSLA2532025-05-152026-05-18
TSM2532025-05-152026-05-18
USO2532025-05-152026-05-18

Recent Forecasts

TickerInputTargetPredictionConfActionLoss
GOOG2026-03-102026-03-11GOOG likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows73%add0.8634
HOOD2026-03-112026-03-12HOOD likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows69%trim0.8263
SNDK2026-03-112026-03-12Micron to exit consumer memory business amid global supply shortage - Reuters61%buy1.0350
GOOG2026-03-112026-03-12GOOG Alphabet SEC 424B269%add1.1150
TSLA2026-03-132026-03-16Pre-Market Most Active for Feb 26, 2026 : NVDA, BFLY, VICI, IONQ, QBTS, TTD, JOBY, VIR, IONX, TQQQ, CRCG, NU78%hold1.0868
USO2026-03-092026-03-10Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain78%buy0.8332
NVDA2026-03-092026-03-10Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain80%add0.6672
RVI2026-03-092026-03-10Did Robinhood Just Change Investing Forever?63%hold1.0071
QQQ2026-03-112026-03-12S&P 500 and Dow Rally to Record Highs as Tech Stocks Surge63%add1.0936
SNDK2026-03-092026-03-10TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K85%avoid1.1557
TQQQ2026-03-092026-03-10TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K62%hold1.0871
SPY2026-03-092026-03-10Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain63%hold0.7930
TSLA2026-03-092026-03-10Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain68%hold0.9249
AMAT2026-03-102026-03-11Micron and other memory stocks see outsized losses. What’s behind the big moves? - MarketWatch78%add0.8227
META2026-03-102026-03-11S&P 500 and Dow Rally to Record Highs as Tech Stocks Surge67%add1.1150
TQQQ2026-03-102026-03-11Pre-Market Most Active for Nov 18, 2025 : OLMA, SQQQ, TSLL, TQQQ, NVDA, SNAP, IBIT, NVO, HNGE, NIO, SMR, BBAI86%buy1.1576
SPY2026-03-102026-03-11Noteworthy ETF Outflows: TLT86%add1.2501
SNDK2026-03-102026-03-11Noteworthy ETF Inflows: RSP, SNDK, TPL, TER76%buy0.8221
META2026-03-112026-03-12S&P 500 and Dow Rally to Record Highs as Tech Stocks Surge55%hold1.0175
GLD2026-03-112026-03-12GLD likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows86%add1.1708
AMD2026-03-122026-03-13Micron to exit consumer memory business amid global supply shortage - Reuters62%add0.9997
RVI2026-03-122026-03-13RVI likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows68%hold1.1186
QQQ2026-03-122026-03-13SPY, SBU: Big ETF Inflows46%hold1.0025
SNDK2026-03-122026-03-13Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Nvidia, Micron, SanDisk & more - CNBC86%buy0.7689
TQQQ2026-03-122026-03-13Pre-Market Most Active for Feb 11, 2026 : U, IBIT, MSTX, AAPL, TQQQ, HOOD, ETHA, VRT, SMR, F, NIO, RDW86%avoid0.8063
TSLA2026-03-122026-03-13After Hours Most Active for Mar 4, 2026 : IONQ, NVDA, AVGO, AGNC, T, AAPL, KO, CRGY, VTRS, QQQ, SAN, UBER86%hold1.1243
GOOGL2026-03-112026-03-12GOOG Alphabet SEC 424B269%add1.1150
AVGO2026-03-122026-03-13AVGO likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows76%add1.1175
SPY2026-03-122026-03-13SPY likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows69%hold1.1458
TLT2026-03-122026-03-13TLT likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows68%hold0.8467