News Forecast Experiments

Dataset coverage, next-day news predictions, and scored loss for prompt iterations.

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Dataset rows
5620
Events
20461
Predictions
6839
Scores
4269
Avg loss
0.9105
Avg news match
16.7%

Prompt Metrics

PromptPredScoredLossNewsDir
llm-base-v124240.806023.6%8.3%
llm-bearish-reversal-guard-v131310.863022.7%6.5%
llm-catalyst-calendar-v111110.824221.0%9.1%
llm-directional-trader-v111110.845921.4%36.4%
llm-directional-trader-v21191190.601127.0%55.5%
llm-guarded-directional-trader-v143430.755425.6%20.9%
llm-news-simulation-v124240.823822.8%8.3%
llm-precision-abstention-v137370.777626.5%10.8%
llm-skeptical-consensus-v1880.849120.0%12.5%
llm-surprise-catalyst-v152520.826423.3%15.4%
local-hybrid-audit-2026051711144500.901711.2%16.4%
local-hybrid-audit-20260517-pl1201201200.830513.5%60.0%
local-hybrid-momentum-v16946840.829417.2%51.2%
local-knn-audit-2026051711143960.858815.7%15.1%
local-knn-audit-20260517-pl1201201200.836818.0%36.7%
local-knn-news-v16946840.805521.7%40.3%
local-nb-audit-2026051711144521.079911.5%16.7%
local-nb-audit-20260517-pl1201201201.087713.0%35.0%
local-nb-audit-20260517-small551661.104313.0%3.8%
local-news-nb-current-pl1201201201.039812.7%48.3%
local-news-nb-v16946841.076216.1%30.0%
news-forecast-v124130.271150.4%37.5%

Dataset Coverage

TickerRowsStartEnd
AAPL2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMAT2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMD2532025-05-152026-05-18
AMZN2532025-05-152026-05-18
AVGO2532025-05-152026-05-18
CBRS32026-05-142026-05-18
GLD2532025-05-152026-05-18
GOOG2532025-05-152026-05-18
GOOGL2532025-05-152026-05-18
HOOD2532025-05-152026-05-18
INTC2532025-05-152026-05-18
META2532025-05-152026-05-18
MSFT2532025-05-152026-05-18
MU2532025-05-152026-05-18
NVDA2532025-05-152026-05-18
QQQ2532025-05-152026-05-18
RVI512026-03-062026-05-18
SNDK2532025-05-152026-05-18
SPY2532025-05-152026-05-18
TLT2532025-05-152026-05-18
TQQQ2532025-05-152026-05-18
TSLA2532025-05-152026-05-18
TSM2532025-05-152026-05-18
USO2532025-05-152026-05-18

Recent Forecasts

TickerInputTargetPredictionConfActionLoss
HOOD2026-03-102026-03-11Gold Hits $4,000 per Ounce. Here Are 3 Top Gold ETFs to Buy Now.78%buy1.1884
QQQ2026-03-102026-03-11IWM vs. QQQ: The Small-Cap Star ETF Against the Large Growth Fund61%add1.0836
AMAT2026-03-112026-03-12Micron to exit consumer memory business amid global supply shortage - Reuters57%add1.0339
AMD2026-03-102026-03-11Micron and other memory stocks see outsized losses. What’s behind the big moves? - MarketWatch86%buy0.8665
SPY2026-03-102026-03-11Noteworthy ETF Outflows: TLT86%add1.2501
SPY2026-03-132026-03-16Want to Get Your Portfolio to $1 Million in 30 Years? Here's How Much You Should Aim to Invest in the S&P 500 Each Year.55%hold1.0084
TSLA2026-03-132026-03-16Pre-Market Most Active for Feb 26, 2026 : NVDA, BFLY, VICI, IONQ, QBTS, TTD, JOBY, VIR, IONX, TQQQ, CRCG, NU78%hold1.0868
NVDA2026-03-102026-03-11Pre-Market Most Active for Jan 12, 2026 : BDSX, TSLL, TQQQ, INTC, SOFI, SOUN, SMR, NIO, CSAN, RDW, VLN, NVO86%add0.8094
GOOG2026-03-112026-03-12GOOG Alphabet SEC 424B269%add1.1150
MSFT2026-03-162026-03-17Why Gold Loves Trump as Much as Trump Loves Gold57%trim—
SPY2026-03-112026-03-12SPY likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows60%hold1.0408
MU2026-03-162026-03-17Micron Earnings Foreshadow Chip Shortage in 2026 - Barron's68%buy—
META2026-03-162026-03-17Better S&P 500 ETF: State Street's SPY vs. Vanguard's VOO58%hold—
TSM2026-03-112026-03-12Nvidia and AMD Could Face Worldwide AI Chip Export Controls Imposed By the Trump Administration45%hold1.0097
INTC2026-03-162026-03-17Notable ETF Outflow Detected - IWB, INTC, ABT, KLAC63%buy—
HOOD2026-03-112026-03-12HOOD likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows69%trim0.8263
GOOG2026-03-162026-03-17MGK vs. QQQ: Here's How to Tell Which Popular Growth ETF Is Right for You79%add—
TLT2026-03-092026-03-10Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain86%add0.8961
GLD2026-03-162026-03-17The Market’s Silent Warning: What Bonds and Gold Reveal57%hold—
QQQ2026-03-092026-03-10TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K63%hold1.1122
TSM2026-03-132026-03-16Is Micron Technology the Next Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?67%hold0.7371
MU2026-03-092026-03-10TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K81%avoid1.1569
AMZN2026-03-122026-03-13AMZN likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows75%add1.1763
TQQQ2026-03-132026-03-16Pre-Market Most Active for Feb 26, 2026 : NVDA, BFLY, VICI, IONQ, QBTS, TTD, JOBY, VIR, IONX, TQQQ, CRCG, NU86%trim1.1018
QQQ2026-03-132026-03-16After Soaring 84% in 5 Years, Is the Invesco QQQ Trust Still a Good ETF to Buy in 2026?57%hold1.0277
AMD2026-03-162026-03-17Micron and other memory stocks see outsized losses. What’s behind the big moves? - MarketWatch78%add1.0499
INTC2026-03-132026-03-16INTC likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows66%buy0.7786
AMZN2026-03-132026-03-16GOOG Alphabet SEC 424B561%add0.7987
AMD2026-03-132026-03-16Nvidia and AMD Could Face Worldwide AI Chip Export Controls Imposed By the Trump Administration67%add0.7499
SNDK2026-03-132026-03-16Is Sandisk the Next Micron?77%buy0.7545