News Forecast Experiments
Dataset coverage, next-day news predictions, and scored loss for prompt iterations.
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Read-only dashboard. No order execution.
Dataset rows
5620
Events
20461
Predictions
6839
Scores
4269
Avg loss
0.9105
Avg news match
16.7%
Prompt Metrics
| Prompt | Pred | Scored | Loss | News | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| llm-base-v1 | 24 | 24 | 0.8060 | 23.6% | 8.3% |
| llm-bearish-reversal-guard-v1 | 31 | 31 | 0.8630 | 22.7% | 6.5% |
| llm-catalyst-calendar-v1 | 11 | 11 | 0.8242 | 21.0% | 9.1% |
| llm-directional-trader-v1 | 11 | 11 | 0.8459 | 21.4% | 36.4% |
| llm-directional-trader-v2 | 119 | 119 | 0.6011 | 27.0% | 55.5% |
| llm-guarded-directional-trader-v1 | 43 | 43 | 0.7554 | 25.6% | 20.9% |
| llm-news-simulation-v1 | 24 | 24 | 0.8238 | 22.8% | 8.3% |
| llm-precision-abstention-v1 | 37 | 37 | 0.7776 | 26.5% | 10.8% |
| llm-skeptical-consensus-v1 | 8 | 8 | 0.8491 | 20.0% | 12.5% |
| llm-surprise-catalyst-v1 | 52 | 52 | 0.8264 | 23.3% | 15.4% |
| local-hybrid-audit-20260517 | 1114 | 450 | 0.9017 | 11.2% | 16.4% |
| local-hybrid-audit-20260517-pl120 | 120 | 120 | 0.8305 | 13.5% | 60.0% |
| local-hybrid-momentum-v1 | 694 | 684 | 0.8294 | 17.2% | 51.2% |
| local-knn-audit-20260517 | 1114 | 396 | 0.8588 | 15.7% | 15.1% |
| local-knn-audit-20260517-pl120 | 120 | 120 | 0.8368 | 18.0% | 36.7% |
| local-knn-news-v1 | 694 | 684 | 0.8055 | 21.7% | 40.3% |
| local-nb-audit-20260517 | 1114 | 452 | 1.0799 | 11.5% | 16.7% |
| local-nb-audit-20260517-pl120 | 120 | 120 | 1.0877 | 13.0% | 35.0% |
| local-nb-audit-20260517-small | 551 | 66 | 1.1043 | 13.0% | 3.8% |
| local-news-nb-current-pl120 | 120 | 120 | 1.0398 | 12.7% | 48.3% |
| local-news-nb-v1 | 694 | 684 | 1.0762 | 16.1% | 30.0% |
| news-forecast-v1 | 24 | 13 | 0.2711 | 50.4% | 37.5% |
Dataset Coverage
| Ticker | Rows | Start | End |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| AMAT | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| AMD | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| AMZN | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| AVGO | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| CBRS | 3 | 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-18 |
| GLD | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| GOOG | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| GOOGL | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| HOOD | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| INTC | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| META | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| MSFT | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| MU | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| NVDA | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| QQQ | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| RVI | 51 | 2026-03-06 | 2026-05-18 |
| SNDK | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| SPY | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| TLT | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| TQQQ | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| TSLA | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| TSM | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
| USO | 253 | 2025-05-15 | 2026-05-18 |
Recent Forecasts
| Ticker | Input | Target | Prediction | Conf | Action | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-11 | GOOG likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows | 73% | add | 0.8634 |
| HOOD | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-12 | HOOD likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows | 69% | trim | 0.8263 |
| SNDK | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-12 | Micron to exit consumer memory business amid global supply shortage - Reuters | 61% | buy | 1.0350 |
| GOOG | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-12 | GOOG Alphabet SEC 424B2 | 69% | add | 1.1150 |
| TSLA | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-16 | Pre-Market Most Active for Feb 26, 2026 : NVDA, BFLY, VICI, IONQ, QBTS, TTD, JOBY, VIR, IONX, TQQQ, CRCG, NU | 78% | hold | 1.0868 |
| USO | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-10 | Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain | 78% | buy | 0.8332 |
| NVDA | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-10 | Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain | 80% | add | 0.6672 |
| RVI | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-10 | Did Robinhood Just Change Investing Forever? | 63% | hold | 1.0071 |
| QQQ | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-12 | S&P 500 and Dow Rally to Record Highs as Tech Stocks Surge | 63% | add | 1.0936 |
| SNDK | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-10 | TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K | 85% | avoid | 1.1557 |
| TQQQ | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-10 | TSM Taiwan Semiconductor SEC 6-K | 62% | hold | 1.0871 |
| SPY | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-10 | Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain | 63% | hold | 0.7930 |
| TSLA | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-10 | Oil Price Hits $100 a Barrel Amid War in the Middle East: ETFs to Gain | 68% | hold | 0.9249 |
| AMAT | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-11 | Micron and other memory stocks see outsized losses. What’s behind the big moves? - MarketWatch | 78% | add | 0.8227 |
| META | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-11 | S&P 500 and Dow Rally to Record Highs as Tech Stocks Surge | 67% | add | 1.1150 |
| TQQQ | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-11 | Pre-Market Most Active for Nov 18, 2025 : OLMA, SQQQ, TSLL, TQQQ, NVDA, SNAP, IBIT, NVO, HNGE, NIO, SMR, BBAI | 86% | buy | 1.1576 |
| SPY | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-11 | Noteworthy ETF Outflows: TLT | 86% | add | 1.2501 |
| SNDK | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-11 | Noteworthy ETF Inflows: RSP, SNDK, TPL, TER | 76% | buy | 0.8221 |
| META | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-12 | S&P 500 and Dow Rally to Record Highs as Tech Stocks Surge | 55% | hold | 1.0175 |
| GLD | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-12 | GLD likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows | 86% | add | 1.1708 |
| AMD | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | Micron to exit consumer memory business amid global supply shortage - Reuters | 62% | add | 0.9997 |
| RVI | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | RVI likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows | 68% | hold | 1.1186 |
| QQQ | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | SPY, SBU: Big ETF Inflows | 46% | hold | 1.0025 |
| SNDK | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Nvidia, Micron, SanDisk & more - CNBC | 86% | buy | 0.7689 |
| TQQQ | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | Pre-Market Most Active for Feb 11, 2026 : U, IBIT, MSTX, AAPL, TQQQ, HOOD, ETHA, VRT, SMR, F, NIO, RDW | 86% | avoid | 0.8063 |
| TSLA | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | After Hours Most Active for Mar 4, 2026 : IONQ, NVDA, AVGO, AGNC, T, AAPL, KO, CRGY, VTRS, QQQ, SAN, UBER | 86% | hold | 1.1243 |
| GOOGL | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-12 | GOOG Alphabet SEC 424B2 | 69% | add | 1.1150 |
| AVGO | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | AVGO likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows | 76% | add | 1.1175 |
| SPY | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | SPY likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows | 69% | hold | 1.1458 |
| TLT | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | TLT likely follows a none news pattern from similar historical rows | 68% | hold | 0.8467 |